Not going to dwell too much on this but a few thoughts.
As the title states, it was a very messy race. They actually went a decent clip which suited Golden down to the ground but as he came through to make his challenge, he just didn’t seem to go anywhere fast!
Without moaning too much, not really sure why he came so near to the rail as subsequent events showed that the middle was the place to be.
However, the key was definitely the ground. The only time they ever go anywhere near that rail is when the ground is riding soft. Hence, it was soft ground.
As Andrew said to me after the race, I got most things right! It was backed from 10/1 to 13/2 before drifting to 8/1 late on. On Betfair, it was continually weak but it did reach lower than 9 pre-race which was nice for those of us trading it! I had a large bet at 10 and 10.5 and laid off at 9.
It traded at below 4 in running (small amounts were matched below 3), so it shows it travelled well.
Due to trading it, I ended up with a very large riskfree bet on it pre-race but I then topped up another £30 at the off and attempted to lay my £30 off at 2.08, so it was a £30 loss. However, I was getting near a 4 figure return, so I can’t complain too much.
The only good thing from the race was that it finished 2nd last after tiring in the ground. That will go down as its worst run this season and it was beaten a fair way at the end.
Why is this good?????
Hopefully, Mr Handicapper will be very kind and drop it another 2lbs or so. Next time, assuming it gets its ground, it will be a better bet than it was tonight as it will be factored into its price that it ran badly last time.
If we assume it’s maybe dropped 2lbs, runs in a 16 runner handicap in 3 weeks on firm ground and is priced at 16/1, I suggest we all lump on it!
Until then, consider any losses as money lent!
You can see why I never give out tips to anyone. Every man and his dog I knew backed that and when some see it finished 2nd last, they will think I’ve lost the plot! lol
As tonight showed, the one key factor in horse-racing is the ground. I hope the trainer is kicking himself for running it tonight as he did the horse a disservice as well as making me look a little bit silly on here!
Whatever happens, I don’t doubt that the horse is well handicapped and ready to win a race and for that reason, I’ll follow it next time without even looking at the race. I suggest you all do the same!
Incidentally, any horse that is being aimed at the Brighton mile must really love firm ground. They haven’t had soft ground in 2 years! Seems obvious now…….