Tuesday, 19 August 2008

Champion Tipster Day 2

Bet 1 - 3.10 Brighton - Silky Steps (12/1)
Bet 2 - 3.45 Brighton - Shesha Bear (7/1)

Before I get on to today’s races, a few quick points. Steve made a great comment about yesterday and I agree with him concerning a few things.

Going forward, I will only ever post up an analysis of a race when I have a strong selection in the race. I don’t think it’s doing my credibility much good to be posting up thoughts on races where I have no strong selection. I know some of you are keen to hear my thoughts on races but as I’ve said before, one of my downfalls is the fact I can form a view on every race.

Secondly, I’m never going to post up a selection without giving the odds that are available. Hence, if I find a horse I think is a bet at 10/1 and it’s only 6/1 on oddschecker, then I won’t post it as I would have to quote that it is 6/1.

Overall, I’m going to try to develop a more professional approach to this tipping game.

I read on JPs blog last night that Tipping Legends selected Adage and Golden Dixie as selections yesterday. Both were well fancied by me also. One point I’ve made to JP and Andrew a few times is the fact that I think Tipping Legends use nearly an identical criteria as me for selecting horses. It’s widely regarded that they are one of the best professional tipping services out there at the moment. Hence, I don’t think there is much wrong with my selection criteria. Yesterday was just a poor day all round!

Right, on to today’s racing. I see that York has been abandoned. I will therefore stick to my new rules above and not give out my selections for York!!!

There is only one flat card remaining and being honest, it looks dreadful. And I mean dreadful!!!!

However, since I’m attempting to win a tipster comp, I better get my finger out and find a winner……

3.10 Brighton

1 – Ran badly last time and looks much better on AW than turf. Dismiss.
2 – Well beaten all 4 starts this year and I can’t see anything to recommend it. Dismiss.
3 – Was harshly handicapped after maiden runs but drooped 16lbs before popping up over C&D last time in a maiden handicap last time dropping back in trip. Only 8th run since and finished last, so difficult to know strength of the race. Up 3lbs for the win. Keep
4 – Very interesting. Never beaten further than 5 lengths in 4 handicaps and dropped a total of 5lbs since first run. Was ridden today’s jockey when 3rd in an AW maiden last season after travelling very well and looking like the winner. Will get much stronger handling today than previous races this season. Keep
5 – Was pulled up on last run but 2 previous handicap runs would put it in with a chance here. Keep
6 – Ignore last run over too far but to me, looks very, very exposed off a mark of 60. Will be disappointed if nothing is better handicapped here than him though. Keep
7 – Must be better than it has showed as had Spencer up last time and Sanders up today. Been ridden by Dettori in the past also. Not bad jockeys for a horse rated 59! Makes you think it must be better than it has showed on the track but we are having to guess. Dismiss
8 – Simialr to the stable companion above (7), has been ridden by all the top jockeys but hasn’t shown a modicum of promise in any race. May be better than shown but we again have to guess. Dismiss.
9 – Last 3 handicap runs over 8f have seen him beaten 2 lengths, 3 lengths and 2 lengths. These marks were 57,55,54 and now runs today off 52. Hence, only needs to run to same sort of form to win this. Keep.
10 – Dropping down handicap but been running dismally recently. Beaten out of sight last few starts and it would need to bounce back to last year’s form to stand a chance. Dismiss.
11 – Things haven’t fallen right the last couple of times and could still be well handicapped. Eddie Ahern rode it when it won it’s maiden – he rides 4 today. Keep
12 – Dropping down the weights quickly but looks totally out of form. Would need to bounce back to have a chance. Dismiss.
13 – Trainer doesn’t have a clue about trip and tried everything from 5f to 13f! Even if today’s trip is correct, doesn’t look well handicapped. Dismiss
14 – Ran its best race last time and was in the same race as 6 and 9. If it ran same race again, would have a chance. Keep
15 – Well beaten in sellers the last 3 times and impossible to fancy. Dismiss
16 – Impossible to fancy on form. Dismiss.

This actually looked like a very competitive 16 runner handicap on paper but I’d say that only 7 horses can possibly win the race. It’s 5/1 the field on oddschecker, so there is some nice value to be found here in my opinion.

I’m left with 3,4,5,6,9,11,14.

Interestingly, 6,9 and 14 ran in the same race 35 days ago. 9 was 3rd, 14 was 4th and 6 was 5th. Today, 9 is 2lbs lower, 14 is same mark, 6 is 3lbs higher. Hence, 9 is easily the best bet today. Interestingly, it’s the highest price today!!!!

So, we are left with 3,4,5,9,11 now.

I think we can safely say that Eddie Ahern had the choice of 4 and 11 today and he has ridden both in the past. The fact he hasn’t ridden 4 this season yet implies that he has jumped from 11 to 4. 11 is also drawn quite badly today, so we’ll pick 4 over 11.

We are left with the final four. 3,4,5,9.

3 won a poor race here last time and is 3lbs higher. It’s also the forecast fav. Hence, we have missed the wedding with this one. We won’t attend the funeral today. Dismiss.

4,5,9…..

5 is Spotlight’s pick and second favourite. It ran very poorly last time and I would have hoped that would be factored into the price. It clearly won’t be today. Hence, we will miss this one out.

We are now left with Silky Steps (4) and Space Pirate (9). Both are well drawn today. The deciding factor for me is the Eddie Ahern link and the fact he rode it once before on it’s best every run implies to me it is expected to run much better today.

Silky Steps is worth a bet. Currently a 12/1 chance. Space Pirate is 16/1 at the moment.

3.45 Brighton

1 – Not well handicapped and takes a step up in trip. Too many questions to answer IMO. Dismiss.
2 – Similar profile to 1. Step up in trip and not seemingly that well handicapped IMO. Dismiss.
3 – In excellent form and will be suited to today’s trip and ground. Up 3lbs for last win and good runs and seems fair. Keep
4 – Only ran badly once in its life and dropping a little in weights despite running well. Last time was very promising and probably only needs to repeat this to win. Keep
5 – Stepping up in trip, in sort of form, impossible to fancy. Keep
6 – Was a huge gamble on Saturday but ran badly again. Showed promise once but apart from that, done nothing. May be backed again but difficult to fancy with no form. Dismiss.
7 – Very closely weighted with 3 on previous run and difficult to separate them two. Keep

On paper, this looked competitive but I think it’s between 3. There is a great formline here between 3 and 7 as both are weighted to finish side by side.

However, we missed the wedding on 3 last time and 7 is 9 years old and not really improving. 4 is improving, only had 6 runs and seems on a good mark.

The other interesting aspect is the fact that the jockey on 4 is the apprentice of the season. He basically is only used by trainers where they feel he is a big benefit. He has ridden for this stable twice this season and had 2 winners. Hence, we can assume that this is fancied today.


Shesha Bear is currently priced at 7/1 and would be my bet of the day.

15 comments:

Dave said...

About time....

Backed it at 17 on BF.

Well Done.

Dave

Anonymous said...

Well done.

Backed it at 14/1 this morning mate.

keep them coming

Dan

Matt said...

Very very nice work G. Backed Space Pirate this morning.. £250 on, nice return :)

Matt said...

...and £400 on that one, makes this a reasonable day... thanks Graeme, I owe you a drink or three :)

Matt

Anonymous said...

FUCKING GOD!!!!!!!

Dave said...

Bring on next month.

Got the double.

Dave

Iranian Giraffe said...

LMFAO, well that day was slightly better!!!. So come on you can tell me how did you really get them to win, giving the other horses "special potions/foods", bribing Jockeys/trainers it's OK no one else will know you can tell me lol

seriously though m8 well done

Mike

Steve said...

When I said it's only a matter of time I didn't expect you to fire in 11/1 and 13-2 winners the next day :)

Seriously you do have amazing race reading skills and it's good to see the thought process behind your selections and well written write ups.

Anonymous said...

thats more like it........

Steve said...

Graeme,

A lesson for everyone who reads this comment. Read the whole bloody post!

I backed the 2 you plumped for in the tipping comp. You'll read about it later in the racing post but the first one was hampered twice in running and had no chance to win. It did trade lower IR though, so I got out with a small loss.

Second one travelled well and won well. Nice profit.

Much better today mate.....

Liked the analysis also. Much better read than yesterday.

Steve

Matt said...

I read the whole post, I enjoyed the analysis and that's why I decided to have a bit of fun going for them today. I know he didn't 'pick' the first winner as his first choice, but the analysis was such that both seemed good bets, I felt happy knowing I had two with reasonable chances onside.

The analysis made it for me Graeme, good work.

John said...

Never before have I followed a tip until today! I was reading your blog at work during my lunch break and thought, what’s the harm in just placing a few bets. I had noted the odds you suggest and at the time of looking they were all just short of your recommendation. I decided to place orders in at your odds (and on both runners in the 3:10), thinking if they don’t get matched then never mind – I haven’t lost anything. Finished work and checked my balance to find 2 winners out of 2 – the bet on Silky Steps never got matched! How much do I owe you!?.......

NS said...

Well done, congratulations - I'm looking forward to the next month Tipping Legends had a 3rd Place. How about The Tipping Legend!!

willwilliamsdh said...

It was a good read, today, thanks; great result!

David W

Graeme Dand said...

Well done Dave. Shame I didn’t get 17 or 16!

Dan, you got similar odds to me mate. Well done.

Matt, your stake size scares me mate!!!! Good to see you backed both. I was worried people may have missed out on Space Pirate as I didn’t make it crystal clear at the top of the post. Shame I didn’t select it in the tipping comp though……lol

Anonymous, keep these thoughts until next month please. If you are still calling me that then, we’ll both be happy!

Dave, you must have made more than me mate! Double paid around 90/1 at starting prices I guess, so great call. If Matt had done a double, he’d be having the week off! lol

lol Mike. Maybe I just fluked them 2 winners mate!!!! Cheers and I hope you backed them!

Cheers Steve. I just need to do this on a consistent basis mate and everything will turn out great! I was getting a bit agitated as I was struggling to find any I fancied recently (since the Golden Prospect fiasco!), so my confidence was knocked a bit. Today will help though….

Cheers Anonymous. I agree that’s more like it. Let’s hope I can keep it going!

Steve, I had a feeling that someone would only back the 2 at the top. I was between two in the first race and I just went for the other one due to the jockey theory. I saw the other one was badly hampered though and it appeared to travel well, so just put this one down to bad luck!

Matt, I agree the analysis helps out. Also, it is a great way of knowing where I went wrong and for others to see how I arrived at the selection. Lastly, it also allows potential form students to pick up on things to look out for. Cheers for the comment.

John, your comment made me smile mate. I should have followed you and just left a back in at 17 on my phone. Instead, I reduced my bet and took smaller odds to ensure I backed it. School-boy error!

Nice to see you backed both though. The other one was very well backed all day and it was impossible to get above 12 on it from early morning as I couldn’t get that price!

lol NS – If I was a betting man (I love this saying!), I’d say that tipping legends are maybe a 1/10 shot to kick my ass next month. They are very good and haven’t had a bad month yet it appears. If I can be nearly as good as them, I’ll be happy!