Wednesday, 20 August 2008

Not a disaster!

Daily Loss £15

Just to keep things in order, wanted to do a quick post.

Today is one of them days when I don’t mind having a loss to be honest. I was just saying today to someone that to win in the long-run, you need to be able to read races well and understand when a bet is value.

I always find the race reading bit easier in many aspects and finding possible winners is fairly easy. However, deciding on which horse to back is more difficult and I sometimes get it wrong. With experience, I’ll get it right more often but I got it wrong twice today.

In the first race, I had narrowed it down to 2 possible bets. However, last night, I had built my own quick tissue and I knew that I was looking for 10/1 on Icannshift and 12/1 on Cruise Director. Both were priced up at less than 8/1 this morning which meant I had got my tissue wrong and hence, they weren’t a bet today. I made that clear this morning.

Looking at my tissue now, the reason I had them two overpriced was simply because I had the favourite in too short. Hence, I sort of smiled when I heard before the race that the fav was well backed all day and I had a wry grin tonight when I see that Tipping Legends had put that one up……

This morning, instead of telling everyone to not back Icannshift as it was too short, I should have went further and said to back the favourite which would have taken some leap of faith and I’m not at that advanced stage yet in my tipping career. Another lesson learnt for me though. Also maybe shows that I can do with issuing a tissue for every race I analyse…..(this thing is in danger of becoming a full-time job!)

The second race was funny. If you read my analysis, even with the 4 non-runners, the race went to nearly perfection as the fav sat at the back and came through to win as I said it would! I thought the favourite was too short this morning at 2/1 and I was right. Malapropism was 11/2 and 6/1 on opening shows and I was right to select this. Even with 4 non-runners, the favourite only started at just below Evs on Betfair, so 2/1 was too short in the morning. It won very easily though, and mines was a well beaten second.

On the face of it, I missed a 3/1 and Evs winner today in 2 handicaps. I only had one bet on Malapropism at 5 on Betfair just before the off. I didn’t have a bet in the first race as I couldn’t get the odds I wanted.

Some days when you pick 2 losers, you feel like it’s a disaster. Today doesn’t feel like that to be honest.

Hope no one went daft on Malapropism. For those that read the analysis and had a slightly different interpretation, you could have found the two winners yourself today……

I’ll post up 2 selections tomorrow.

No comments: