Monday, 11 August 2008

A Golden Day?

I don’t really have the time to write a long post but basically, Golden Prospect runs in the 4.00 at Wolverhampton today.

The horse’s last win was over this course and distance with the same jockey on board as today. It won fairly well off a mark of 69 and it came with a sweeping run down the outside off a decent pace.

Today, it runs off a mark of 66 (3lbs lower) but the race looks very competitive. On the form book, it’s not even certain to beat It’s A Dream as this was the horse who was 2nd when Golden Prospect was 4th in that race that worked out very well. However, I would argue that Golden may be better on the AW than this one, so he can turn the form around IMO.

I see that he’s wearing cheekpieces today for the first time which may help it. The fact it runs so quickly after disappointing at Sandown can be viewed as a positive or a negative. I’ll happily settle for the argument that it didn’t go on the ground at Sandown and therefore, the jockey wasn’t too hard on it when its chance was gone. Hence, it can run well today.

In summary, I was obviously more confident last week since I thought it was in top form. Obviously, my confidence was reduced greatly when the ground changed to soft and I’m sure that’s why it ran disappointingly. However, it may be the case that the horse just ran poorly and therefore, I couldn’t be as confident today.

I don’t have a clue what price it may be as I can’t access Betfair Mobile at the moment as they are changing the software. I left in backs last night at between 17-22, so I’m hoping it may be in this sort of price range but I’m really not 100% sure as I haven’t spent time on the race to come up with my own tissue.

6 comments:

markomar said...

I like these tips posts of yours quite a bit. Not so much for the tips themselves, but because you explain a little bit why you think the horse is a good bet.

It gives me some insight into good form reading, which I`m personaly not jet any good at.

Graeme Dand said...

Hi mate.

Being honest, I don’t really see it as a tip. I’m definitely not telling anyone to back it after the debacle of last week!

I gave a fairly convincing argument for backing it last week and it ran abysmally to be honest. I’m backing it again today and I’ll see what happens.

As I said in that post, today’s race is a very competitive race and I’m less confident than last week, so I’ll just be having a small bet on it to win.

If you are seriously interested in trying to learn about form reading, drop me a note and I’ll give you a few things to look out for.

Greaeme

Anonymous said...

Graeme,

I’ve been away on holiday for a week and its taken me all weekend to catch up on the past week.The comments have been funny to read and you seem to have built up a good rapport with your readers.

I missed the horse last week and it looks a tricky race today, so I’ll take a watching brief.

I’d say that I too like your posts when you discuss races and come up with a horse you think will run well. Similar to the reader above, the final horse doesn’t really matter but I like following your methodology. I read last weeks post twice and it was slightly over my head in places but it was still a great post and gave real insight into how a form expert reads a horses form.

I saw your comment about the readership of the blog and I’m sure that’s just down to the entertainment value the blog provides readers such as me. I look forward to reading your blog every couple of days and it’s better than reading a book at times, so well done.

Stan

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Stan.

Hope you enjoyed your holiday mate!

lol at ”form expert”. I’m sure that’s open to question at the moment and even more so if Golden disappoints me again today but it’s the long term that counts I suppose!

Interesting you like the posts where I discuss horseracing more than trading. A few readers have said that recently tbh. I wouldn’t mind doing more posts on races given the time as I quite enjoy it.

When I set out, it wasn’t the intention to make the blog entertaining in any way as it was meant to be a serious trading blog. Obviously, the number of highs, lows and changes of strategy has made it slightly more fun and I’m glad you’re enjoying it.

I’ve said this a few times but if I was any good at trading and won everyday, it wouldn’t be as good a read! lol

Cheers for the comment again.

Graeme

markomar said...

The horse didn`t win, but the odds of both of the horses mentioned here (Prospect and Dream) shortened very noticeably from midday until race time, so you could read that as validation of your reasoning. It seems you were far from the only one that figured they had more of a chance than they were given.

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Markomar.

It's good you noticed that to be honest. I've mentioned it in the post I've just written also.

As I've said lots of times in the past on here, the reason I specialise in handicaps for exposed horses is because the form is already in the book. You just need to find it.

I think the future will show that the front 2 horses in that race are much better than their current mark. The winner looks to be improving very fast and would be one to not take on in the near future on the AW.

Also, it's not one to back either as it will be clobbared by the handicapper I suppose but be wary of it.....

Cheers for the comment.

Graeme