As I mentioned in my earlier post, the races tomorrow for which there are established markets, don’t really grab me. However, I will be following the odds on a few of the runners, so I will share my thoughts and logic on here…
Chester 2:50
Over the years, I’ve found that when group class horses run in handicaps, they win – simple as. It doesn’t matter that they are invariably lumbered with top weight – provided the conditions are right (ie. distance and going), their class will see them through.
This is a high class handicap – but one horse in the race is almost certainly better than a handicapper. The horse in question is – not surprisingly – the top weight, Speed Gifted.
I say ‘almost certainly‘ because he hasn’t categorically proved his class - and therefore that would be the doubt. But he has been campaigned like a group horse by a shrewd trainer.
The last twice he has run, events have conspired against him (the soft ground at Ascot and getting upset in the preliminaries in France). Provided everything goes according to plan today, I could see him outclassing this field.
Anything above 6-1 is fair…
Chester 3:25
Chester is a unique course. A 1 mile oval, suited only to certain types of horses. The horses in question need to be sharp (out of the gates) and nimble – but just as importantly, they need to be well drawn (the lower the better) and ridden be a tactically astute jockey..
My 3 against the field in this race are Celtic Sultan, Thebes and Pawwan.
Pawwan’s jockey worries me enormously – so I would choose between the other two. However, as the likely odds of each will be around 14-1, choosing may not be necessary…
Sandown 2:05
This is a very trappy race, in which at least half the field can be given a chance.
However, the two favourites (Lindelaan and Barsheba) look beatable and the one that catches my eye, at a reasonable price, is Raymi Coya…
She has already won at listed level (as well as group 3). Her last two runs were at group 1 level, so the fact she finished eighth in both races, isn’t as bad at is it appears. In theory, she is held by Barsheba on her last run - but the going wouldn’t have suited her then, anywhere near as well as it will tomorrow.
At around 12-1, she looks a reasonable bet.
Sandown 2:35
Again, a very open race. Most of the field are open to significant improvement, which means that some speculation is in order…
Checking the Betfair odds, I see that Patrician’s Glory is currently 27 – which is too big. He won a useful maiden at Newbury on his debut and is from a stable not renowned for debut 2 year old winners (suggesting that he may well improve further). I suspect that his true chances are more in the 12-14 range – so I will certainly be playing at the available odds...
Newton Abbot 3:35
It’s great to see a decent NH race taking place – it’s a reminder that ‘proper’ racing is just around the corner…!
This is really competitive race for the time of year (and course !). Roby De Cimbre, representing Nicholls and Walsh, will almost certainly be over-backed. IMO , the race will be won by a horse that has been laid out for especially for the contest…
I quite like the look of Always Waining at around 20 – but if forced to chose the most likely winner, I would go for Full House or Enlightenment. The untapped potential of the latter would probably win the day – unless the price of Full House got much beyond the current 16 on Betfair…
Good luck for tomorrow – if you choose to play – especially if you follow me in on any of the above !
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4 comments:
Cheers for that Andrew. I expected you to have a stab at the Solario; it's a fascinating if very open race isn't it? Thanks for all your work this past week. It's much appreciated and has been a very enjoyable read.
All the best, especially in your gambling pursuits.
Chris
Hi Chris,
The Solario is probably the most interesting race of the day for me (certainly out of the ones I covered). In truth, I suspect that one of the 3 market leaders will win it - I'd be more than happy to take any of them on individually, but I'll be a little surprised if one of the 3 doesn't live up to expectations… If forced to make a call, I’d probably side with Prince Seigfried. That said, I’m more than happy with my wager on Patricican’s Glory at 34. I will probably look to lay off either before the off or IR – despite the fact that I’m sure in my mind that it’s a ‘value’ bet (impossible to prove – but if it was trained by Stoute it would almost certainly be half the price).
With regard to my other selections: I remain sweet on Raymi Coya and Enlightenment (though it’s not a great price). I was also amused to see that Speed Gifted was the pricewise selection. I’ve not got the RP, so I don’t know his logic – I would be interested to see if Tom’s reasons where the same as mine…
Anyway, good luck for the afternoon, whatever you play on – and thanks for the general words of appreciation.
A.
Hi Andrew
Great shout re Patricians. I'd also quite fancied this, but when I saw 34 for a win and 9 for a place late morning I simply had to go for it! You may remember me as the "horse watcher."
Well Patricians wasn't very settled at all before the off, but looked up for burning off his energy. That and not having an ideal ride, I'd back this character to turn the tables on the winning horse next time they meet! Great race.
Cheers
Chris
Hi Chris,
I was really pleased to read that you made some money out of Patricians – I was hoping you would !
In truth, I could have selected just about any of the unbeaten colts. It was the price that drew me to Patricians – coupled with under-estimated connections.
As I said before the race, if it had been trained by one of the big guns, it would have been half the price. Yet bizarrely, it was probably more likely to show significant improvement because of who it was trained by !
In my experience, these are the kind of horses you need to look for – the ones that are under-estimated by the betting public. They won’t win every time – but at those kind of odds, they don’t need to !
Incidentally, I also agree with you that it looked just about the best horse in the race: it didn’t settle; it didn’t get a great ride and it seemed to hang… Don’t tell everyone though, as if it meets Sri Putra and The Checker again, I would be hopeful of getting a half decent price !
A.
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