Friday, 22 August 2008

Champion Tipster Day 5

Today's racing probably makes up for the shit racing all week but unfortunately, I won't see any of it as i'll be out getting things for my holiday I'm guessing.

I spent a fair bit of time last night on the two largest and most competitive handicaps run today, so below are my selections. I'm particularly sweet on Gift Horse today if it repeats its last few runs but it's a massive hold up horse who needs to slice through the field in the final furlong, so it needs a clean passage through to win.

Bet 1 - 3.25 Newbury Tropical Strait 12/1
Bet 2 - 4.10 Newmarket Gift Horse 7/1

3.25 Newb

1 – Will take a mammoth effort to win this off top weight and a rating of 110. Ground and trip OK but very few horses win handicaps off this sort of mark. Dismiss
2- Not beaten less than 22 lengths last 3 starts, so difficult to fancy here to be honest. Dismiss
3 – Amazing improver in handicaps but 4lbs higher than when 2nd last time. Trainer a master with this sort of horse and should run well but handicapped to the hilt and holds no secrets. Will run well but happy to take on. Dismiss.
4 – Been aimed at this all season. Was handicapper of the year two years back and struggled in group class last year. Much better this season in handicaps again this year and unlucky last time. Keep
5 – Can’t beat Young Mick on run 2 starts back and disappointed last time. Young enough to be improving but needs to bounce back from last run also. Dismiss
6 – Quirky and beaten miles last two starts on firm ground. However, previously won very easy on soft and on the a form line with the 3rd, probably has the beaten of the favourite (3). Keep
7 – Was favourite last time to win a tough race which included a few from here and was favourite for this race for a few months. Disapointed last time and can possibly be excused. Could be very well handicapped and only lost once in 4 runs. Keep
8 – Very closely weighted with 4 on run 2 starts back and can maybe excuse last run. Keep
9 – I’d be inclined to take this on here. Won 4 from 5 this season but trainer sees it as a pure stayer and needs a fast pace here to have a chance. Clearly on the upgrade and could be well handicapped but won last two over 2 miles. Drop in trip may see him caught for speed and first run on soft ground ever. Dismiss
10 – Beat 4 and a few others last time and is definitely still improving. Keep
11 – Definitely not got the handicap mark or the class to win this. Dismiss
12 – On OK mark and looks set for solid run but up against too many potential improvers here. Dismiss
13 – Massive doubt around trip. One start at greater than 1m 2f. Can’t back it. Dismiss
14 – Last two runs been very good and same mark here. Not got much to find with the principals to feature. Keep
15 – Not really improving and would need to step up a bit. Dismiss
16 – 4th last year in this but only 3 runs since and only one on flat. Well beaten last time though and needs a leap of faith. Dismiss
17 – A definite improver and last run was very, very impressive. Looked one to keep on the right side of and interesting it runs here. Keep
18 – Trainer is a magician but we’d need to guess about this one’s ability. Dismiss
19 – Won on debut this season but overall profile suggests it’s too high in the handicap to win this. Dismiss
20 – On a decent mark and capable of going close if he repeats recent runs. Keep

Appear to be left with 4,6,7,8,10,14,17,20.

One thing that’s amazing with this race is that there are at least 5 form lines containing multiple horses here. It’s nearly impossible to be honest to unpick them and lots are so closely matched. This is a difficult race to unpick.

I know that there could be a draw bias here, so I’ll try to use that to narrow these down. I also have the odds, we’ll look at these two combined to see if we can get anywhere.

No Draw Odds
4 2 7/1
6 17 12/1
7 15 10/1
8 16 33/1
10 14 11/1
14 9 33/1
17 6 12/1
20 8 25/1

The horses drawn high are on the outside at Newbury, so we are ideally looking for low drawn horses.

I’d be inclined to take on the 4 horses drawn 14-17 simply due to this fact. 3 of them are also fairly short, so I’ll dismiss these 4.

I obviously have 4 horses left now. These are 4,14,17 and 20.

Are there any clear form lines including these 4?

14 has 2 lengths to find with 4 with no weight turnaround from 27th July. However, it was hampered in running, so maybe less to find.

20 has 2 lengths to make up with 14 with no weight turnaround from 29th July. However, it was
badly hampered in running, so maybe less to find.

First conclusion is that 4 doesn’t have too much in hand and at odds of 7/1 here, I’d dismiss this one.

17 has no form lines with anything here as it’s stepping up in class after winning easily last time but it did look very impressive.

Left with 14,17 and 20. I’d be inclined to back all 3 at odds of 33/1,12/1 and 25/1.

I’ll take 17 as my selection for the tipster comp though.


4.10 Newmarket

This is a 17 runner handicap where two horses look so much better handicapped than the rest, it’s difficult to not just look at these two.

I saw the race they both ran last time and the favourite won really well and beat the other one by 4 lengths in 3rd. However, the 3rd was denied a clear run and I thought two things at the time.

Firstly, if Jamie Spencer was on that, he would have got much closer. Two, if he hadn’t been denied a clear run, he would have been beaten by 2 lengths max.

Amazingly, he has Spencer on board today which is an amazing coincidence but he really is the best jockey for exaggerated waiting tactics. He’s ridden it 3 times in 37 races and he’s fucked up on it twice before to be honest by waiting too long to make his move and then finding trouble and finishing full of running. Today, he won’t make the same mistake again hopefully!

He has a 6lb pull for 4 lengths beating but as I said, he really only got beaten by 2 lengths, so 6lbs would put him right next to the other one. Throw in Spencer and that puts it in his favour today.

Earlsmedic is priced at 5/2 and Gift Horse at 7/1 today. Guess which one I think we should back….

Gift Horse is the horse for me. Expect Spencer to ride this with the sort of exaggerated waiting tactics that we don’t see very often (even for him!). This may win on the bridle if he times it right IMO.

Obviously, the above analysis assumes that both horses run to form. If I’m right, they should finish first and second….

3 comments:

markomar said...

Nice. I ended up in profit on both the races as all I did on the first one was lay the number 11 based on your analysis.

Laying is much more suited to me since I can take a big loss no problemo, but the long loosing streaks drive me nuts. :)

Dave said...

Dutched the both of them in the second race.

WD!

Dave

Graeme Dand said...

WD Guys.

Nice to see someone made money from my analysis!!!

Wasn't me though...

G