Tuesday, 19 August 2008

Phew.......

Daily Profit £149.40

This probably sounds strange to some readers but I was starting to feel just a little bit of pressure……

I’ve been continually going on about the fact that in the long-run, I can’t fail to lose and that if I just continue doing what I always do, I’ll pick winners frequently and everything will be rosy for all of us and we’ll make a decent return in the long-run.

However, from when I sent out the email last week concerning next month, it all became a bit serious and I’ve not read much right to be honest. I got too bogged down in trying to read too many races, trying to find ‘perfect’ selections, never finding any, then worst of all, started to think I’d made a huge error with the whole tipping thing!

I got in from work tonight, read the comments on the blog and thought “phew!”

As you’ll see from my profit, I made a nice profit today. I should have made more but I think Matt was snapping all the best odds! (just joking mate!) I’m slightly annoyed with the profit from the first race as I couldn’t get the odds I wanted at the time, only had a small bet on the winner and then was annoyed when I heard it drifted pre-race on Betfair to 17. I won’t complain too much!

I backed the second one though and left a lay IR (great facility on BF Mobile – but not when the selection wins!). The profit today nearly doubles my profit this month and I only risked small stakes, so it’s definitely welcome!

Similar to yesterday, I’ve learnt a few more things today. Firstly, I enjoy analysing the races the way I wrote on the blog. I was taught to use this method and I should use it all the time. I wrote similar posts back in April and they went down like a lead balloon at the time. However, I feel they are worth resurrecting now that I’m giving out selections.

Another great thing about the analysis is that it makes me much more confident in my selections and allows me to say how confident I am through my writing. If it hadn’t been for the last week’s poor run, I would have basically said that the second winner was a penalty kick today. I said that about Golden Prospect last week though at a bigger price when it lost!

The best thing about the analysis though is that I can see where I go wrong and so can everyone else. Today, there was a great form line in the first race where Space Pirate just had to finish in front of two other horses. If the formbook doesn’t lie, there was no way the other two could beat it. Space Pirate was 1st at 11/1, Croeso was 3rd at 11/1 and Mganga was 8th at 8/1. That was how they should have finished and the front 2 run nearly to the pound to be honest (See Spotlight comment), so it was a great read.

Mganga was clearly the wrong price by the way and when I placed my bet, I saw it was trading at less than 8 on Betfair, so it was a definite lay in that race. It drifted pre-race on Betfair I heard, so others spotted that same form line!

In the second race, I selected the first three home which was pleasing. However, even more pleasing was the form line between the 2nd and 3rd. As commented on by Spotlight, they ran very close to their previous form.

As I’ve said before on here many times now, the reason that I find these races easy to read is the fact that the form is all in the book. I just need to read it right. I sometimes get annoyed when I read races wrongly but as Andrew has told me on numerous occasions, I don’t need to read every race correctly!

One point that people have made to me on many occasions is what I see as ‘easy’ is actually a skill that Joe Punter doesn’t have. Hence, when I say that it’s obvious an 8/1 can’t beat an 11/1 in a race, people don’t realise what I’m exactly saying.

This is a golden nugget for the form students out there. If 2 horses run in the same race and A beats B, and B subsequently runs well, when A meets B again, A is much more likely to beat B again since B would have been raised for the subsequent run. However, B will be a shorter price since it will be judged on the subsequent run and not the previous run. Today involved A,B and C but it still holds true. Mganga was subsequently 2nd last time, so it was a shorter price than the other two horses it ran against previously.

From a personal point of view, I should have selected the other horse in the first race for the tipster comp. I’ve read the Racing Post review and I saw it on a comment on the post below but it appears it was badly hampered a few times. Hence, I can’t be too disappointed. Interestingly, I heard it was one of the best backed horses of the day today. I hope some of you traded it for a riskfree bet.

On that very point…..

It’s clear from the comments that people are backing my selections. I’m not silly enough to believe that I can post up horses and an analysis and people won’t act on it but please remember that I want to be judged on the long-run. Don’t judge me on today or on the next couple of days. Judge me on the next month and even the time after that.

I’ve said on here before that I have a substantial ‘edge’ in these types of races but that doesn’t mean I’ll get every race right. I get worried when I see people saying they’ve never had a bet on a tip and then they get both winners today! Please don’t treat today as the ‘norm.’ If I was as good as this, I wouldn’t have this blog for a start! lol

Lastly, this week was all about learning for next month for me. As I’ve said above, the analysis seemed to go down well. One point I’d like to make is that there are many ways to skin a cat on Betfair. Laying that horse today which couldn’t beat the other two was one way. Keep this in mind when you read my analysis next month. If I struggle to find a great selection but manage to narrow down the field by missing out the 4 favourites, try laying all of them instead!

Oh yeah, the tipster comp. Everyone in the top 20 after day 1 had selected a winner on day 1 of the comp, so I have a lot of catching up to do. The winner had a £14 advantage after day 1, so with my 1 winner today, I hope I’m not any further behind! I’ll post up my selections tomorrow.

Thanks for all the comments by the way on the last post. It made me have a great feeling inside when I read them all and I think it’s great that some of you made a few quid today. It’s just the start though………

If anyone hasn’t dropped me a note yet to get on the distribution list for next month, please do so. I’m maybe thinking I could have just used the blog after all for posting up my selections but it wouldn’t do my career prospects much good I think! (Pricing Analyst career that is!)

5 comments:

Matt said...

Like I said in the previous post, the analysis is what made the bets right for me. Why did I like the analysis, because it was systematic. I liked the way you read the form and used it to negate the chances of certain runners, leaving you to pick apart the portions of chance left in the remaining horses. It's this sort of analysis I'd like to see from you each time you make a selection.

This sort of step by step analysis is what most people need to do. The most important thing I feel is to stay honest with yourself at all times. Everything slotted nicely into place today from the analysis you wrote. But if there are parts where you have to hold your hands up, and say I'm not sure, then that's crucial to your success. Todays analysis looked honest, and there was no doubt expressed..

I'd love to punt your selections properly, I certainly did not get best prices today compared to some! But I still felt good that their chances were much better than their prices suggested.. up £5k, which brightened my Tuesday up :)

Matt
Punt.com

maggie said...

The best thing to come out of Dundee since Nareys "toe poke"

Graeme Dand said...

Matt,

I agree 100% that you need to use a systematic approach to reading form. I’ve said that many times on here and it’s another one of my ‘edges.’ Importantly, I actually get a great buzz from trying to read a race. I know some people must read it and think “he should get out more!” but I don’t see that sort of thing as hard work. I love trying to piece together all the bits of the jigsaw and trying to solve the puzzle.

One thing I can’t get across enough is that the type of race is key. Handicaps for exposed horses is where this systematic approach works. Obviously, you still need to take a ‘punt’ on a few things but if you can rule out 50% of the horses who can’t win on the form book, you’ll do well in the long-run.

As you said yesterday, the analysis threw up a clear rationale for backing 3 horses at the odds I outlined. Today’s analysis throws up a rationale for backing both horses but I do think the first one is too short. Backing a horse just because it loves the course, ground and distance doesn’t make it a 7/1 chance IMO.

It’s adding this value aspect to my analysis which is key. If I can work on this more, the analysis will take care of itself.

Punting my selections is fine as long as you can draw your own conclusions from the analysis about how confident I am. Yesterday, in an 8 horse race, I was only left with a possible 3 winners and 2 of them were closely matched on form and not improving, hence, the unexposed horses was the obvious one to back. It won’t always be as clear as this.

I couldn’t separate the other two yesterday, and I opted for the wrong one. That will happen frequently…

Good luck mate. Nice to see you having a bit of fun on the GGs by the way!!!! Nice way to relax….

G

Graeme Dand said...

Maggie,

I'm a fan of the team across the road, so no mention of arab scum on here please! lol

It was a good toe poke though....

G

Anonymous said...

Sorry bout that. I should have said The best thing to come out of Dundee since Albert Kidd was voted player of the year by The Torino Hibs season 1985-86