Friday, 15 August 2008

A few thoughts for today.....

I’m having 2 bets today. One will be a small wager on Carmond in the 1.50 as it looks a nice price (23 on BF at the moment I see) and the other will be in the last race at Catterick tonight. King Harson will win it if it is any sort of form at all.

Apart from that, racing doesn’t excite me too much today. I spent an hour on the Nottingham sprint race (3.10) last night and it was a waste of an hour of my life to be honest.

1.50 Newb

I looked at this race first last night due to the simple fact that Spotlight had napped the fav. When Spotlight naps something in one of my races, I need to take a look….

Being honest, the fav looks solid. The key theme in the race is lack of horses who run on soft going. I’d argue that only the fav may handle the ground, so for this reason, it would be worth a bet.

However, at forecast odds of 2/1 or so, I’d need to find some value. I think it could lie with Carmond. I see it’s about the 16/1 mark which in my opinion, may be a nice each-way price.

It’s an ex German horse who has only run once here and it ran very well over 2 miles last time. It didn’t get the best of runs and it may have finished even closer with a clear run.

Taking into account the handicapper had to guess at what mark to give it, he appeared to be pretty much bang on the mark. However, if we assume that it will improve for its first run of the season and its first run in the UK, 16/1 may be a nice price.

1 point Each-Way on Carmond 16/1

4.05 Newb

Looked at this race in depth but couldn’t separate about 5 horses, so no idea really!

4.35 Newb

The fav looks solid and should win if it runs to form but never won over a trip this short. Hence, I was more interested in Merrymadcap at a bigger price over its favourite distance and ground.

1 point win on Merrymadcap 4/1

3.10 Nott

Probably the worst race I’ve looked at all season. I actually spent a fair bit of time on this one as it looked like my cup of tea. Couldn’t get away from the favourite though but I would never back it at the odds or on this sort of ground.

I did think Monte Major at 11/1 would maybe run well but it’s badly out of form at the moment. Needs a leap of faith but I’d have a small play.

0.5 points Each-Way on Monte Major 11/1

8.15 Catt

The only other fancy I had was King Harson in the last at Catterick tonight. I’m about £40 down on the horse this season as I’ve backed it the last 5 times now!

The horse is absolutely thrown in now (has been last 5 bloody starts) and as soon as it returns to form, it will make all and piss up on the bridle.

Maybe it will be tonight?

2 points win on King Harson at 7/1

Good luck!!!!

7 comments:

Steve said...

Graeme,

The ground is not soft at Newbury. I’ve watched 3 races now and its not soft ground. They are saying the times back this up. Results are also in line with good, good to firm ground.

You really need to pay attention to this factor more.

Steve

Dan said...

His horse got beat by 30+ lengths in the first. He can’t blame the ground. Its a cow.

Anonymous said...

on betfair, your first two runners today averaged odds of 18/1 each if I combine them.

next month, if you continue selecting these, any winners will bankrupt the layers.

you missed the price on king harson tonight. now 9/2 at best.

dave

dan said...

Finally G.

Backed Merrymadcap at 6.2 on BF. You should stick to horses who have everything in their favour.

You said it in the last post.....

Graeme Dand said...

Steve,

I was chatting to Andrew about the ground issue this morning. I also mentioned it in my post tonight.

I do pay attention to the ground and I know it's key to get it right when I'm doing my analysis.

However, at the moment, the ground is drying out everywhere and it is changing all the time. It's impossible to get it right every time. The last couple of days has seen me get it wrong a few times, but it will hopefully even itself out in the long-run.

Graeme

Graeme Dand said...

Dan,

You appear to be backing every horse I post on here going by your comments!

I'm sure you'll do OK in the long-run but you need to listen to my thoughts in my posts more. If I mention a horse and say it doesn't like the ground and isn't a bet, you should really listen to me.....

G

Graeme Dand said...

Dave,

Not sure what point you are trying to make mate? I mentioned the 2 types of horse I select in my post tonight.

Don't be fooled by the high prices of some of my selections. I don't really expect 18/1 shots to win everyday. In the long-run, they'll do fine but don't judge them on their own!!!!

G