I’m having 2 bets today. One will be a small wager on Carmond in the 1.50 as it looks a nice price (23 on BF at the moment I see) and the other will be in the last race at Catterick tonight. King Harson will win it if it is any sort of form at all.
Apart from that, racing doesn’t excite me too much today. I spent an hour on the Nottingham sprint race (3.10) last night and it was a waste of an hour of my life to be honest.
I looked at this race first last night due to the simple fact that Spotlight had napped the fav. When Spotlight naps something in one of my races, I need to take a look….
Being honest, the fav looks solid. The key theme in the race is lack of horses who run on soft going. I’d argue that only the fav may handle the ground, so for this reason, it would be worth a bet.
However, at forecast odds of 2/1 or so, I’d need to find some value. I think it could lie with Carmond. I see it’s about the 16/1 mark which in my opinion, may be a nice each-way price.
It’s an ex German horse who has only run once here and it ran very well over 2 miles last time. It didn’t get the best of runs and it may have finished even closer with a clear run.
Taking into account the handicapper had to guess at what mark to give it, he appeared to be pretty much bang on the mark. However, if we assume that it will improve for its first run of the season and its first run in the UK, 16/1 may be a nice price.
1 point Each-Way on Carmond 16/1
Looked at this race in depth but couldn’t separate about 5 horses, so no idea really!
The fav looks solid and should win if it runs to form but never won over a trip this short. Hence, I was more interested in Merrymadcap at a bigger price over its favourite distance and ground.
1 point win on Merrymadcap 4/1
Probably the worst race I’ve looked at all season. I actually spent a fair bit of time on this one as it looked like my cup of tea. Couldn’t get away from the favourite though but I would never back it at the odds or on this sort of ground.
I did think Monte Major at 11/1 would maybe run well but it’s badly out of form at the moment. Needs a leap of faith but I’d have a small play.
0.5 points Each-Way on Monte Major 11/1
The only other fancy I had was King Harson in the last at Catterick tonight. I’m about £40 down on the horse this season as I’ve backed it the last 5 times now!
The horse is absolutely thrown in now (has been last 5 bloody starts) and as soon as it returns to form, it will make all and piss up on the bridle.
Maybe it will be tonight?
2 points win on King Harson at 7/1