Reading between the lines…

As I mentioned in my penultimate post, my method of winner finding sees me focusing quite extensively on the betting market and trainers. I’ve also mentioned that the races I most like to get involved with are maidens…

For my penultimate blog post, I thought I would describe the market movements I witnessed in a couple of recent maiden races: an Irish maiden hurdle and an English 2 year old flat race. The ‘stars’ of both races were a couple of twice raced, twice unplaced horses…

As I’m sure many of you know, in order to receive a handicap mark, a horse needs to have run 3 time (normally in maidens) or won a race… It is reasonable to expect an inexperienced horse to improve with each outing, so a horse about to embark on it’s third outing, always sets a poser… Will it improve on it’s second run (which might well give it a good chance of winning the race) – or will it be ‘held back’ to ensure a decent handicap mark. Guessing what will happen in these situations is always fun, as the market goes through cycles of bluff, counter bluff and double bluff ! My edge in these races, is invariably calling those bluffs !!! (which is where being able to read the market and knowing your trainers, comes in)…

In this particular Irish maiden hurdle, there was a twice raced runner from a well known Irish gambling stable (I won’t name the stable, as I’m not sure what the position is with regard to liable !). However, this stable is renown for it’s ‘inspired’ gambles on unexposed horses. Personally, I always leave runners from the stable alone – you win some, you lose some – but without inside knowledge I don’t think you would stand a chance in the long run.
Anyway, this was a typical runner from the stable in a maiden – it had shown absolutely nothing in it’s first two runs. Despite this, the opening Betfair show was suitably cautious, but the horse quickly drifted to triple figures (on the assumption that it was having it’s third run to get a handicap mark).
However, money then started to come for the horse and it’s price collapsed. Every price down from 120 to 5 was taken prior to the market being formed on course. Sometimes a drift occurs at this point – but not on this horse… It just got stronger and stronger, eventually going off at 3.4 !
During the race, it was settled out of the back (again, not unusual for fancied horses in Irish maiden hurdles). Just after half way, it started to make ground on the bridle. Jumping the third last it was clearly cantering all over the field – and I watched the price on Betfair expecting it to go odds on… But it didn’t instead, thousands upon thousands appeared on the ‘back’ side at 2. The IR players obviously thought Christmas had come early and kept swallowing it up – but the cash kept reappearing. I should point out that all of this happened in about a 20 second period between the third and second last.
And then, the horse hit the second last and in a stride, went from cantering to toiling ! It eventually finished an unplaced sixth or seventh.
I could only sit back and admire what I had witnessed. The most perfectly executed coup. Not only had thousand been made by someone backing the horse in triple figures and laying it off at 2 – but the handicap mark had been preserved for another day – Genius !!!

I wasn’t quite so impressed by my second example (but then, I had money on this one, unlike the first !).
The horse in question was running in a 2 year old maiden at Sandown. Again, I won’t reveal the name of the trainer – but it was from a medium sized Lambourn yard. The horse had made a very promising debut – but then was an unplaced favourite second time out (on possibly unsuitable ground). The RP had forecast it’s price at 14-1 – so I thought 30 would be feasible on Betfair. I was a little surprised to get matched at 80 – but even more amazed as I watched it drift pre-race to the point where I got my final bet matched – 400 !!! I then watched the race and couldn’t believe what I saw. To my eyes, the jockey took a pull the whole way round and the horse finished a never nearer seventh. I wrote to Graeme the following day to tell him about it – but I also made a note of the horse in question.
A fortnight later, it reappeared in a nursery at Salisbury. It opened on Betfair at a seemingly ungenerous 16 (spotlight did not give it a favourable mention in his preview) – but it was tight in the market all day, eventually going off around 12. In the race itself, it travelled prominently and well, taking up the running a couple of furlongs out to score by a cosy 2 lengths…

The thing is, these kind of things happen every day of the week. Furthermore, the coverage by RUK and ATR and the transparency of the betting exchanges, mean they are visible to each and every one of us. The tricky bit is being able to interpret what you see and use it to your advantage…

On a different matter: as tomorrow will be my last blog post, I was hoping to be able to post analysis on a couple of the races (I feel more comfortable with this now that you have an idea of how my betting mind works !). However, I’ve had a quick look at tomorrow’s cards and no races stand out as obvious candidates. That said, if I do find anything tonight, I will post my thoughts on the blog either this evening or tomorrow morning…