Thursday, 14 August 2008

Example of today's discussion!

I’m determined to not turn this blog into a daily gambling blog punting out views on races as there are millions of forums for this sort of thing and this is meant to be a trading blog. Stan just wrote a fair comment on the last post, so for a one-off, here’s the best bits of today’s discussion between Andrew and I….

I only looked a few races quite quickly this morning when I got a few minutes but I know the form of all mines below fairly well. None of them have ideal trip and ground conditions to be honest, so I won’t be having a bet myself.

Andrew is fairly sweet on the horse in the nursery (buoyed by his winner yesterday I assume!)

For information, we made a 13 point profit between us yesterday (split 10-3 me!). However, Andrew did put up a very strong case for backing a Nursery winner at 16/1 which duly romped home, but he decided it wasn’t one of his better bets yesterday! LOL

Prices quoted are from oddschecker at the time of me writing this!

Graeme’s Views…..

2.10 Bev - Parchment 1 point win 5/1

Been following this horse for 5 runs now and continues to frustrate me somewhat. Always runs the same bloody race where it sits at the back, takes a hard pull and finishes fast. Never gets there in time though! Only two victories have come over course and distance though, so likes it here. Last times run was actually the best run this season (same C&D) and had a nice little break since. I'm slightly worried about the ground but it won on good once, so may cope with good to soft. If the ground is very soft, I'd have my reservations but we will know after the race. It is very consistent and tries hard every time. If it is well beaten today, it will be down to the ground. Its last run has been franked a few times since also, so could be well treated at the moment.

3.15 Bev - Vicious Warrior 1 point win 9/1

This is now very well handicapped. Backed it last time and ran well although it needed softer ground. Looks to have his ground today and will attempt to make all. Unfortunately, there are a couple of other in the race who like to be up with the pace, so may not get an easy time in front which dampens my confidence somewhat. Last two runs appear to show it running into form and I can't believe the price of it today in this race. Closely handicapped with Ella Woodcock on last run which is a shame as this one appears slightly better in today (due to go up in future handicaps by 4lbs). This will be factored in the price though, so Vicious remains the value call.

3.25 Sandown - Salient 1 point win 8/1

Looks to need a softish surface, a smallish field and an easy lead to be able to perform to the best of his ability. Last 4 runs can be excused by me somewhat. It's last run where it led, in a smallish field on soft was at Goodwood 5 runs back with today's jockey on board. Made all and won off a rating of 86. Off a rating of 84 here today. I don't see anyone capable of taking this on for the lead and it may be able to make all. Did a similar thing at Sandown last year off 80 and won easily by 3 lengths. Need it to bounce back to form obviously but this is factored into the price today.

5.00 Bev - Piano Man 0.5 points Each-Way 25/1

This is very speculative but if it was over 10f, I'd maybe have this as my best bet today. I managed to catch a recording of it's last run and it was eye-catching. A quick look at it's form afterwards made me think it was a winner waiting to happen at 10f on soft, so it's a shame it's running over 8f today. The horse is clearly not the force of old and is deteriorating fast. However, it's handicap mark is tumbling but I think it's now in some sort of form after being in no sort of form earlier in the season. Very few people will spot this one IMO, so it must be a value bet even over the incorrect distance. It will start very slowly and be held up last. Hopefully, they might go a break-neck pace and set it up for others from the back. It would then have a decent chance....

5.20 Salis - Urban Warrior 1 point win 6/1

Only needs to repeat it's last run to win this. Finished 6 lengths clear of the 3rd and the winner bolted up yesterday and has also won since, so a 1lb rise should not really stop it winning today. The major, major doubt would be the ground. I don't think it likes very soft ground and I see it's down as soft at Salisbury. This is factored into the price though as I'd have it as a 9/4 shot on firm ground. At these sort of odds, it must be worth a small punt in the hope that it copes with the ground. If it doesn’t win, I hope it is well beaten and then it may be worth a bet back on firm next time.


Andrew’s views….

3.50 Beverly – Going Time 2 points win 7/1

The second selection runs in the nursery at Beverley at 3:50 (I must be getting carried away with yesterday’s success!). The horse in question is Mark Johnson's Going Time. Last time out, it was fav for the Newmarket maiden won by Rainbow View, with Snoqalme Girl, Night Lily, Nashmira etc. in. Prior to that it had run very promisingly and today it has a Handicap rating of just 67 ! (fuck - this could be some kind of certainty!). It's 8.2 on BF and 7-1 on odds checker...

4.15 Salisbury – Wise Dennis 1 point win 12/1

Wise Dennis is the selection. From a pure handicap perspective, he'd go close to winning this, but the key is the ground (and distance). A mile on soft is perfect for him. I also like the fact he's had a recent run over further, to get him fit (but not fancied !). Oddschecker will only give me 12-1 - which is a bit skinny. I've taken some 16 on BF. The RP goes on about the stable form - but I think that's bollocks. It's a small stable and looking over the past couple of weeks, it's had placed runners at big prices, so it can't be in too bad form... I would hope 14-1 may be available at some point during the day but if not, 12-1 will have to do...

11 comments:

Steve said...

Graeme,

If you can come up with this in a few minutes and after sending a few emails to Andrew, I’m salivating at the prospect of next month!

I’ve had a look and I can’t believe you spotted Piano Man in a few seconds. I agree it wants 10f though, so I’ll just be watching today for that one. Next time.

I love the way you put a very strong argument forward for backing each horse but then decide that none of them are worth backing! You really crack me up at times…..

If you don’t make it as a tipster with your knowledge, then the world is not round!

Steve

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Steve.

Thanks for the comment mate.

However, I don’t want to lead anyone up the garden path here with this post. Next month, no one would see these thoughts since I don’t think any of these are worth a bet IMO. I’m not trying to kid anyone along by giving an argument to back horses and then saying to not back them.

I was asked to post up my thoughts by Stan which I have done. I also made it clear that none of these are worth a bet. Even if they all run well, my view wouldn’t change. I woudn’t back any of these today.

Next month, I’ll be trying to find horses that have everything in their favour to win a race. None of my selections have this today.

Just wanted to make that clear so there are no misunderstandings….

G

Anonymous said...

Graeme,

Thanks for sharing these views. As you say in the post, none of these are bets today as they are not running under optimum conditions.

I was just saying that it would be good to share your views with readers more often.

Stan

Graeme Dand said...

Stan,

One of my issues with sharing thoughts on horse-racing on a public blog is that people may act on what I say.

One of my great flaws in horse-racing is that I can form a view on a donkey derby at Blackpool beach as long as there is some historical form for me to look at. Hence, I can probably form a view on every race run every day and I bet it’s a better view than Joe Punter 99% of the time.

However, I don’t have the time to do this, so I pick and choose my races carefully. Today, I only looked at 5 races for example. I’ve then posted my 5 views on here and people will think that’s my 5 best bets today! Hence, I need to be really careful to say that these are not worth a bet today.

Some days, I may only look at 1 race and form a view. If I post that view on here, everyone will think I’m posting up some sort of certainty and back it no matter how much I say don’t back it!

Next month, everything will be easier. I know that there is a strong demand for people to hear my views but it needs to be done in the appropriate manner. A blog isn’t the correct place IMO.

Graeme

Steve said...

Graeme,

I understood your post LOUD and CLEAR.

I know where you are coming from but no one is going to judge you on tips when you state obvious reasons for not backing them…..

Steve

Dan said...

Great call for Vicious. Traded at less than 1/10 but got headed on line.

Nice profit…..

Dan

Steve said...

Was Andrew’s horse to back or lay Graeme?

Doubled in price and finished last!

Steve

Anonymous said...

LOL Steve - I only operate at the extremes of the spectrum !!!
Andrew.

Steve said...

lol...

I was just pulling your leg!

Steve

Graeme Dand said...

Hi Steve.

Apologies for my paranoia today mate. I’ve became very cautious about posting any views on here after the Golden Prospect criticism, so I wasn’t really keen on posting up horses who I thought would run well but probably not win as they all had something to overcome. I decided to go ahead and do it anyway.

However, I tried to make it as clear as possible in the post that these were not possible bets in anyway, so I shouldn’t really worry.

I’m probably just a little bit nervous at the moment with the whole tipster thing but I need to learn to relax and enjoy it more!

As I keep saying to everyone, I know I’ll pick plenty of winners next month…..

Cheers for the comments today.

I laughed when I read you comment to Andrew! I was winding him up today also about the 2 horses and their finishing positions. :)

Graeme

Graeme Dand said...

Dan,

Nice to see you won on that one mate but I hope you didn't back any of the rest!

I did say to not back any of them, so if you had listened, you could have laid them all!!!

Nice to see you paid attention to my advice though. lol

Graeme