Thank goodness that’s over…!

I refer both to the worst Sunday’s racing in a good while – and the tipping competition…

Sunday tends to be my favourite days racing of the week. Domestically, it’s often not great – but the Irish invariably save the day. Not today however !!
What a shame that the weather which has resulted in the abandonment of the last ever meeting at Tralee , couldn’t have wiped out today’s dire cards at Cork and Ballinrobe instead.. It’s poor day (or Arc Sunday !) when the best racing is provided by the French…!

With regard to the tipping competition: then any tipping competition that last just 7 days, is bound to be won by the luckiest punter around – and for all our strengths (sic) Graeme and I would never claim to be lucky !!

I’ll do a quick review of today’s selections – but in truth, they barely warrant that:
The rain at Goodwood resulted in every selection bar 1 being a non-runner ! The only one that did run was Janina. I found this a little surprising as she had performed poorly on the soft before and I’m sure she has been scratched from recent races when the ground has turned soft. Maybe connections just decided to get a run into her - and should could be worth another go on better ground…
Over in Ireland, my 2 selections both finished fourth. Although I saw them both as 20-1 ish shots, I got matched on one at 60 on BF: whilst the other never traded below 11 (6-1 SP), so I didn’t back it. The 60 shot ran the better race – but was facing tough competition.
The only race I really got involved in today was the 2:45 at Deauville. I fancied both Classic Remark (at a price) and Muthabara… Amazingly, in the 5 mins leading to the off, I was able to continually back Classic Remark at close to 40 and lay around 14 ! Similarly, Muthabara was available to back around 7.6 and lay around 5.5 ! It never fails to amaze me how volatile these weak markets are. Unfortunately, neither horse ultimately proved good enough, so I had to take a loss on the race.
More surprising was the defeat of Coastal Path in the 3:45 by a horse who he had beaten 9 lengths on his penultimate start (over the same trip and on the same ground). It reminded me why I never back at odds on - or indeed below 3-1 (not that I needed reminding !). As the old cliché goes, they are not machines…

I was intending calling it a day at that point – as bad racing was just about to get even worse. But the runners for the final race at Goodwood caught my eye - or more specifically, one of the runners: Linda Green…

As you are probably aware, Graeme’s mantra, is that if you back a well handicapped horse when it encounters ideal conditions, it will invariable win (or at least run well). To be honest, although this sounds easy to do, finding these horses normally takes far more effort than I am prepared to put in. However, when Graeme identifies such a horse, I normally make a mental note of it…
Linda Green was identified by Graeme, as such a horse earlier in the year. Much to my amusement, it proceed to repeatedly run like a hairy goat, and then popped up twice in a week at Windsor during one of Graeme’s self imposed sabbaticals ! It has lost twice since then – but today, was running of a mark 3lbs lower than it’s last run. Graeme also maintains that you should follow a well handicapped horse until it ceases to be well handicapped. Linda Green had won in the past off a much higher mark than it was running off today. I checked out it’s price this morning – but at 12-1 is seemed to be priced correctly. 5 minutes before the off, at 20 on BF, it seemed overpriced - so I jumped in. I was really surprised to then see it drift to 28 (where I got my final bet matched ). I layed off almost half of my stake immediately IR at 21. The remainder, I carried through the race until the final furlong, when half of my potential winnings were matched by a lay at 2.4, to give me a profit which just about off-set the loses incurred earlier in the day.
I’m not sure how they say ‘Cheers Mate’ in Spanish – but ‘Cheers Mate’ !!

Onto tomorrow: I don’t intend to post any more tips, now that the competition has finished. Instead I will raise my first subject for serious debate: ‘Value Betting’. I’ve not actually decided what I’m going to write yet - but I’m sure it will be a riveting read, so make sure check out the blog tomorrow and let me have your thoughts on the subject…