Thursday, 21 August 2008

Champion Tipster Day 4

Bet 1 – Ethaara 2.40 Great Leighs (2/1)
Bet 2 – Tony The Tap 3.15 Great Leighs (9/1)

Similar to yesterday in many aspects, today’s racing is very poor. I wouldn’t even look at the races to be honest but since I’m in this tipping comp, I had to find two!

Do not back these horses today!!!!!!!!!!

I initially looked at a few races at Chester but they are just too competitive. I couldn’t even rule out half the field in one race.

I was short of time last night also, so there is no great analysis to go with the two selections today for the competition.

Ethaara was an unbelievably short price on debut and I couldn’t understand why as it hadn’t run. It was also fairly weak on Betfair but the money came late, so someone knew it was decent. I watched it closely and it travelled like a dream through the race but was far too inexperienced to do itself justice.

Importantly, it wasn’t commented on by the RP analyst after the race as having run well, so it becomes a straight match between his IR race reading skills and mines…..

I have this down as being close to an odds on chance today and I can’t see a tissue yet as the big bookmakers are being very slow in pricing up this race.

I did see it’s around 3 on Betfair though, so I thought it was a value bet at 3 amazingly. It should win this 1 in 2 times…..

The second selection is around the 9/1 mark which is much more like it. Basically, the reason for selecting this is that on the form book, it should just beat the favourite IMO. Hence, I think it is wrongly priced at 9/1.

As you can see from the above, not much thought gone into today’s selections being honest but I’m starting to wind down for my holiday.

Please don’t back any of these as they are not really tips. I wouldn’t give a tip today as there are no available betting opportunities for me.


Steve said...

One of the things which should ensure you do well as a tipster is the fact that you are honest. Matt commented on this recently and he is very accurate.

I'm sure other readers are picking up on this and it's a superb trait to have. As I learn more about the way you dissect races, I can see that I'll be able to judge how strong your selection is from the analysis and how you decide on which one to back.

I read your analysis yesterday and thankfully, I placed a small win double on both favourites. I could see that if I held a gun to your head, you would have selected both of these to win. I know you would argue your point regarding value but your analysis of both races was as perfect an analysis as I've ever read. The second race was spot on and the fact that it was highlighted by Spotlight also made me sure that it was worth at bet at 11/10 as everything was in its favour. I also had a small single bet on this.

In your post last night, you said that you were happy with your bet as it was value. I probably agree with you in principle but you miss the point somewhat. One time in 5 races, maybe Malapropism may have won. However, 3 times in 5 races, the favourite would have won. Therefore, you missed the value there. Value isn't always linked to the price of the selection.

You said somewhere that the analysis can be used in many ways and I'm starting to think it may be worth more to me than your final selections. Other readers may find this useful for next month.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi Steve.

I was going to write a reply to this but I’m at work. I’ll either include the response in a blog post or I’ll write you a proper reply tonight mate.

Great comment by the way. Deserves a decent response….


Anonymous said...

Backed off the boards from 7/4 to 5/4 and won well.


Matt said...

Well done on Ethaara G. I had a wee nibble on the back of your valuation... remember the shorter the price the less in terms of ticks you need for the value to become backable, don't forget this too.

If you want a 5% edge, and you price something up at 10s, then you need it to be 20s to bet.. something you value at evens, is 5% big at 2.22.. which is why I had a wee nibble ;)

Well done, nice work for a very quick pick it would seem.